Early Decision Now Fills the Majority of the Class at 40 Selective Schools — and the Odds Gap Is Widening
ED now fills 54% of Columbia's class, 60% of Duke's, and 68% of Middlebury's — meaning the 'regular decision' acceptance rate you see published is far lower than it looks once those seats are gone.
At 40 selective colleges, more than half the incoming class is now locked in through binding Early Decision before regular decisions even go out — and at Davidson, Middlebury, and Emory, that figure hit 67-69 percent in 2025. The ED advantage is sharpest exactly where admission is hardest: at the most selective schools, ED applicants are admitted at roughly 2.5 times the rate of regular applicants (23% vs. 9%), and that gap has been growing for three straight cycles. The catch is structural — because binding ED requires committing before you see any financial aid offers, families who depend on aid are effectively locked out of the strategy, and the regular-round seats they're competing for keep shrinking. Before you apply anywhere this fall, run the net price calculator for your top-choice school first; if the estimated cost fits your budget, applying ED I is the single highest-leverage move available to you. If you're not ready for ED I, watch for ED II deadlines in January — the yield benefit is nearly identical and the pool is smaller.
This issue draws on reporting and data from College Transitions.